International Excellence Talks
_%20-%20Kopie_rdax_1240x392.png "Julia Schade")
Excellence lives on exchange and networking among the best researchers worldwide. That is why we want to invite you to join us in a new lecture series, International Excellence Talks, where internationally renowned scientists will give insights into their current research topics and, ideally, inspire a broad audience of scholars. This monthly event will include a 30-minute keynote lecture and a platform for networking and informal exchange among researchers with a wide range of interests. Recordings of previous talks can be found at KIT International Excellence Talks YouTube Channel.
Drivers and Subseasonal Predictability of Cold Air Outbreaks in the Central United States
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Jason C. Furtado, Ph.D.
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Abstract: Even in a warming world, extreme winter weather events like cold air outbreaks still occur and have high socioeconomic costs, but they remain a challenge to forecast skillfully in the subseasonal-to-seasonal timeframe (i.e., 2-8 weeks). In this talk, I will discuss recent work by the Applied Climate Dynamics Group at the University of Oklahoma to improve our dynamical understanding of the evolution of cold air outbreaks in the central United States and then use this knowledge to improve skill in subseasonal predictions of those events. We use a combination of observations and numerical modeling experiments to show why we should care about intraseasonal variability in the stratosphere to improve our forecast skill, including considering different types of stratosphere-troposphere coupling outside of the “classical” paradigm. Additionally, we will highlight particular precursor flow patterns in the upper troposphere (so-called blocking patterns) which were key for skillful 3+ week forecasts of the February 2021 North American Cold Air Outbreak and could be exploited for long-lead predictions of future cold air outbreaks.
About the talks
In case you have any questions or would like to receive updates on topics, lecturers and more, please send us an email to ieg∂intl.kit.edu.
The lecture series is organized by the International Scholars and Welcome Office (IScO) of KIT in the framework of the International Excellence Grants Program with funds granted to the University of Excellence concept “The Research University in the Helmholtz Association I Living the Change” in cooperation with the Humboldt-Regional Group Karlsruhe-Pforzheim.
